What We Know About Brazil's Election and the Amazon's Future

Brazil holds a presidential runoff Sunday that will help decide the near-term fate of the Amazon, according to The Guardian's Today in Focus podcast. The episode's topic tags list both Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, pointing to the two figures in Sunday's contest. Guardian Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips traveled to Roraima, Brazil's northernmost state, to report on what residents there expect from the vote, the outlet said.

What happens in Brazil on Sunday?

Voters head to a presidential runoff, The Guardian reported. Flávio Bolsonaro, described by the outlet as "the far-right candidate," is one of the two contenders. He is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The episode was hosted by Helen Pidd, with reporting from Phillips and production by Ivor Manley, Eli Block and Ross Burns, per the show's credits.

Why does Roraima matter to this race?

Roraima "heavily backed Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round," according to The Guardian. Phillips traveled there to interview voters, preachers and politicians about what a Bolsonaro-aligned government would mean for the region and the rainforest, the outlet said. The podcast describes residents there as hopeful that a Flávio Bolsonaro administration would revive mining activity, something his father's government "so heartily encouraged when in power," The Guardian reported.

What did Jair Bolsonaro's government do to the Amazon?

The Guardian's episode description says the elder Bolsonaro's administration "oversaw the felling of 11m acres (4.5m hectares) of rainforest" during his time in office. That figure is the only quantified deforestation data point in the Guardian's reporting on the episode.

Deforestation under Jair Bolsonaro, by the numbers

• 11 million acres of Amazon rainforest felled, per The Guardian
• 4.5 million hectares, the metric equivalent cited in the same report

What are Indigenous activists saying about the vote?

Phillips also met "Indigenous activists determined to fight back even if the Bolsonaros take power again," according to The Guardian's description of the episode. The outlet did not quote the activists directly in the text accompanying the podcast, and no additional detail on their specific plans was provided in the source material reviewed for this report.

"Indigenous activists determined to fight back even if the Bolsonaros take power again." — The Guardian's description of the podcast episode

What's at stake for the climate?

Host Helen Pidd asks in the episode "what it will all mean, not only for Brazil but also for the climate crisis more broadly," The Guardian said. The outlet frames the Amazon's fate as tied directly to the runoff outcome, given the deforestation record under the previous Bolsonaro administration and the mining expectations voiced by Roraima residents in the episode.

What to watch next

• Sunday's runoff result — whether Flávio Bolsonaro or his opponent wins the presidency.
• Mining policy signals — any early statements on reopening mining activity in the Amazon region, a expectation raised by Roraima voters in the Guardian report.
• Indigenous community response — whether activists in the region follow through on stated plans to resist policy changes under a Bolsonaro-aligned government, per the outlet.
• Deforestation trend lines — whether new data in the coming months tracks toward or away from the 11-million-acre felling figure The Guardian attributes to Jair Bolsonaro's tenure.

The Guardian's full episode, including interviews recorded in Roraima, is available at theguardian.com. The outlet said listeners can send questions to tif.questions@theguardian.com.

Who else worked on the Guardian episode?

Sami Kent served as executive producer on the episode, according to the Guardian's published credits. The accompanying photograph was credited to Raphael Alves and published by The Guardian alongside the episode description.

How can listeners access the episode?

The Guardian listed Apple Podcasts, Spotify and an RSS feed as the available platforms for the episode, in addition to the direct download on its own site. The outlet grouped the episode under its "Today in Focus" strand and tagged it with topics including Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Amazon rainforest, Deforestation, Indigenous peoples and Americas, according to the page's topic listings. The Guardian published the episode under its Americas and World news sections, placing the runoff within its broader coverage of Brazilian politics and the global climate crisis.