Khartoum — Conflict, Drought Push Sudan Toward Famine, Monitor Says

Conflict and an El Nino-driven drought are raising the risk of famine across Sudan's Darfur and Kordofan regions, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) said in a statement published Monday, reported by Al Jazeera.

What is driving the famine risk in Sudan right now?

The drought is affecting roughly half of Sudan and is compounding the effects of conflict and displacement, reducing food availability, driving up prices and hurting livelihoods, the IPC said in its Oct. 12, 2026, statement. Healthcare is "extremely limited, often entirely inaccessible," and clean water is becoming scarcer, the monitor said, leaving a poorly nourished population vulnerable to disease and death. The war between Sudan's military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has run since April 2023, according to Al Jazeera.

How bad is malnutrition in Darfur's displacement camps?

In Nyala, the share of children accessing nutrition services who were admitted for severe acute malnutrition roughly doubled, from about 5% to 11%, between January and August 2026, the IPC reported. Two displacement camps in South Darfur recorded global acute malnutrition rates above famine thresholds, per the same IPC data. In North Darfur, delayed rains disrupted crop cultivation and left food stocks "critically low," worsening food insecurity, the IPC said.

What does the data show in North and South Kordofan?

Poor vegetation growth is affecting nearly two-thirds of cropland in North Darfur and about half of cropland in South Darfur, West Kordofan and South Kordofan, according to the IPC's Oct. 12, 2026, assessment. West Kordofan is experiencing one of its worst droughts since 2004 amid poor rainfall, the monitor said, with severe water shortages limiting any near-term agricultural recovery.

"Food insecurity, acute malnutrition and excess mortality will likely intensify." — IPC, Oct. 12, 2026 statement

How many people are already in the most severe food-insecurity phase?

An IPC assessment from May 2026 found nearly 19.5 million people, more than 40% of Sudan's population, facing high levels of acute food insecurity. Of those, 135,000 people were classified in Phase 5, the IPC's most severe category, marked by extreme food shortages, starvation, very high malnutrition and deaths from disease or acute malnutrition, per the same May 2026 figures.

What is next to watch for Sudan's food crisis?

• Whether rainfall returns to North Darfur in time for the next planting cycle, after the IPC flagged "critically low" stocks on Oct. 12, 2026.
• Whether the Phase 5 count rises above the 135,000 people recorded in the IPC's May 2026 assessment.
• Whether Nyala's severe acute malnutrition admission rate climbs past the 11% recorded in August 2026.
• Whether humanitarian access changes amid the ongoing conflict between Sudan's military and the Rapid Support Forces, per Al Jazeera's reporting.

The IPC is composed of 21 organizations and intergovernmental bodies, including UNICEF, the World Bank, the World Food Programme and the World Health Organization, according to Al Jazeera's report on the Oct. 12, 2026, statement.