What We Know About Russia's Sabotage Campaign and NATO's Response

Russia is accused of running a campaign of deniable sabotage, arson and killings across Europe that stops just short of triggering a direct NATO response, according to a commentary roundup published by the New York Post Editorial Board on Oct. 12.

What is Russia accused of doing in Europe?

Reason's J.D. Tuccille, as quoted in the Post's roundup, writes that "the European Union and NATO may not openly be at war with their eastern neighbor, but Putin's regime is waging" a deniable form of conflict. Tuccille's description, per the Post, is that Russia continues "to send covert operatives or hire local criminals to burn, bomb, kill, or otherwise sabotage military and industrial targets in Europe as an extension of its war against Ukraine." The framing treats these incidents not as isolated crimes but as a coordinated extension of the war in Ukraine, carried out by proxies rather than uniformed soldiers.

Why doesn't NATO just respond directly?

The difficulty, according to Tuccille's argument as relayed by the Post, is that "the western allies are in a quandary" over how to answer attacks "deliberately kept just below the threshold that would trigger an open response." A sabotage attack carried out by a hired local criminal, rather than a Russian soldier, gives Moscow deniability and gives NATO members an excuse to avoid treating it as an act of war. That ambiguity is the point: it lets Russia inflict damage on military and industrial targets without crossing the line that would unify the alliance behind a collective military answer under its mutual-defense framework.

How is the line for a response shifting?

Tuccille's core warning, as cited by the Post, is that the threshold itself is not fixed. "While Europe dithers, the Russians are constantly adjusting their perception of where that threshold lies," he writes. In practice, that means each unanswered incident becomes a data point Moscow can use to test how much further the next attack can go before provoking a unified reaction. The commentary does not specify a timeline or a list of incidents; it argues the pattern itself, of calibrated provocation followed by allied inaction, is the strategic risk.

What other debates appeared in the same commentary roundup?

The Post's Oct. 12 compilation grouped the Russia item with two other pieces. From the right, the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board argued that Democratic opposition to Alaska energy development is complicating the state's Senate race, writing that "progressives want Alaska to be a nature preserve for tourism and dog-sled races," per the Post. The board noted that Alaska GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan has a bill that "would have prevented leases in the coastal plain oil and gas leasing program from being canceled" by a future administration, while his opponent, Mary Peltola, would vote "to put even more of Alaska's vast energy resources in a deep political freeze," the board wrote.

On the foreign desk, Commentary's Seth Mandel examined French President Emmanuel Macron's position after recognizing a Palestinian state last year on the condition that Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas hold new elections. Mandel notes that Abbas, writing per the Post, has reneged, leaving Macron looking for a way to respond, with options Mandel frames as a version of "boycott, divestment, sanctions" aimed at the PA itself.

Data points from the commentary

• Mahmoud Abbas is described by Commentary's Seth Mandel, as quoted in the Post, as "nearing 22 years into his four-year term" as Palestinian Authority chief.
• The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, per the Post, calls the Alaska Senate race a "toss-up," a status the board attributes to Democratic resistance to oil and gas leasing in the state.

Glossary

Gray-zone warfare: Hostile activity, such as sabotage or cyberattacks, carried out below the level that would clearly justify a military response, allowing an aggressor to claim deniability.

Coastal plain oil and gas leasing program: The federal program governing lease sales for oil and gas development in Alaska's coastal plain, referenced in the Post's summary of Sen. Dan Sullivan's bill.

Recognition (of a state): A formal diplomatic act by one government acknowledging another entity as a sovereign state; France's 2026 recognition of "Palestine" was tied by Macron's government to a condition involving new Palestinian Authority elections, according to Commentary's Seth Mandel as cited by the Post.

The original roundup, including the full text of each commentator's argument, is available from the New York Post.