Colombian Banana Exports Fall 32% as El Niño Damage Mounts

Banana exports from Colombia's Caribbean growing region fell 32% to $122m between July and September this year, the Association of Banana Growers of Magdalena and La Guajira said, as reported by the trade publication Fruitnet and cited by The Guardian. The drop, tied to high winds and a developing super El Niño event, is the clearest early sign of a production hit now spreading across Latin America's banana belt.

How Much Have Colombian Banana Exports Fallen?

The September numbers were sharper than the quarterly average. Shipments from the Magdalena and La Guajira region were down 42% year on year that month alone, with earnings nearly halving to $40m from $70m a year earlier, according to the growers' association. Colombia is one of the UK market's largest suppliers, and the region has also been named in drought forecasts for parts of the country this year, the Fairtrade Foundation said.

What Other Countries Are Affected?

Colombia is not alone. Heavy rainfall is already hitting production in Peru and Ecuador, Fairtrade said, while the Dominican Republic is bracing for drought, with forecasts pointing to conditions drier and warmer than usual. Each country faces a different weather threat from the same El Niño system — wind in Colombia, rain in Ecuador and Peru, dry heat in the Dominican Republic — but all are converging on lower yields in the same growing season.

How Does This El Niño Compare With Past Events?

Fairtrade's own research found that during the 2023-24 El Niño cycle, productivity among its farmers and workers dropped 13% in the Dominican Republic, 22% in Ecuador and 6% in Peru compared with the prior year. The group is warning this cycle could be worse.

"We expect the impacts for producers to be more severe" than in the 2023-24 cycle, said Dr. Carley-Jane Stanton, climate and environment lead at Fairtrade, Nov. 8, 2026.

History offers a starker benchmark. The 1983 El Niño, among the strongest ever recorded, affected 15% of Ecuador's total planted banana area and cut the country's exports by 36%, according to Fairtrade.

What Are Growers Asking For?

The Magdalena and La Guajira association is calling on buyers to adjust what they pay. "Given the risks threatening the continuity of banana production, we are calling on international markets to foster commercial conditions that recognise actual production costs and contribute to the sector's sustainability,” the association said, according to Fruitnet's reporting cited by the Guardian. The ask is straightforward: prices that reflect what it now costs to grow and ship fruit through more volatile weather, not just prices set by prior-season output.

What Happens Next?

No pricing deal has been announced, and the current El Niño's full-season impact has not yet been measured against the 2023-24 comparison figures Fairtrade is using as a baseline. The next data points to watch are Colombia's October and November export totals and whether forecast drought conditions in the Dominican Republic materialize as predicted. Full details are in the Guardian's report.