Iraq Flooding Kills Two as Rainfall in Erbil Nearly Triples Forecast

Two people died in northern Iraq on Saturday after 80mm of rain fell on Erbil in a short burst, nearly tripling a forecast of 30mm, according to the Weather Tracker column compiled by MetDesk and published by the Guardian. The gap between the forecast and the actual rainfall total is the central number behind the flooding: a volume of water the city's drainage systems were not sized to handle arrived well beyond what forecasters had flagged.

How much rain fell on Erbil and what was the toll?

Erbil absorbed an estimated 80mm of rain versus a forecast of 30mm, the Guardian's Weather Tracker reported, a shortfall that turned routine storm drainage into standing floodwater across the city within hours. Streets were inundated as torrential rain fell over a short period, the report said, and the flooding caused extensive damage to homes and businesses. Two deaths were confirmed in connection with the flash floods, according to the same report. The Guardian did not publish a damage estimate in dollar or dinar terms, and no additional casualty figures beyond the two deaths were included in its account.

What triggered the flash floods across Iraq and Iran?

The floods arrived as part of a broader band of severe thunderstorms that swept across the region over the weekend, hitting northern Iraq and neighboring Iran simultaneously, the Weather Tracker said. The report did not break out separate rainfall or casualty figures for the Iranian side of the storm system, framing it instead as part of the same weather event that soaked Erbil. The pattern is consistent with a fast-moving convective system — thunderstorms that build and release rain quickly rather than over a sustained period — which explains why actual totals outran the original forecast by a factor of roughly 2.7.

How is Storm Bruna affecting Portugal and the Canary Islands?

Farther west, Storm Bruna is forecast to bring gusts of up to 50mph (80km/h) to Portugal's west coast this week, with heavy rain and thunderstorms also expected, according to the Guardian's report. Cumulative rainfall from the storm could reach 200mm by the end of the week, the Weather Tracker said — more than double the amount that fell on Erbil in its flash-flood event, though spread over several days rather than hours. The storm had already reached the Canary Islands by the weekend: Tenerife recorded an 80mph wind gust on Saturday night, per the same account. The wide range between Portugal's forecast gusts (50mph) and Tenerife's already-recorded peak (80mph) illustrates how exposed island terrain can intensify a storm's leading edge before it reaches the mainland.

What is driving the cold snap and snow in Japan?

Japan is dealing with a separate system entirely. A cold and snowy end to last week is giving way to further snowfall in Hokkaido and the mountains of Honshu, the Guardian reported, with temperatures forecast to fall as much as 10C below the seasonal average in Sapporo, Hokkaido's capital. Daytime highs in Sapporo are expected near 4-6C on Monday and Wednesday, dropping to roughly 0C on Tuesday, while overnight lows could hit -6C by Wednesday and -8C in other parts of western Hokkaido on Tuesday, according to the report. Snow totals are expected to reach 30-50cm around the Kiroro and Niseko resorts, with 20-30cm in Furano, Rusutsu and Sapporo, and gusts near 75mph accompanying the snowfall over the weekend at Kiroro and Niseko, the Weather Tracker said.

What should residents and travelers watch this week?

For Erbil and northern Iraq, the near-term question is whether additional thunderstorm cells follow the same track that produced Saturday's 80mm total; the Guardian's report did not include a forecast for repeat flooding. In Portugal, the 200mm weekly rainfall projection tied to Storm Bruna suggests the flood risk shifts from a single-day spike, as in Iraq, to a cumulative soaking over several days. In Japan, ski resorts in Hokkaido were already preparing for visitors after snow began falling Friday, with additional accumulation of up to 20cm expected at other resorts by Wednesday, according to the report — a detail that points to an active, rather than fading, snow season heading into mid-November.

The Guardian's Weather Tracker is compiled by MetDesk and did not name additional official sources, such as Iraq's meteorological service or Portugal's IPMA, in the version of the report reviewed for this account.