Washington — Alaska, Maine Emerge as Pivotal 2026 Senate Races

Control of the US Senate is being decided across 35 races, but independent elections analyst Cook Political Report has rated only seven as toss-ups, and two of them — Alaska and Maine — illustrate how narrow the path to a majority has become, according to BBC News.

What happens if Democrats flip four seats?

A four-seat gain by Democrats would hand the party control of the chamber, giving it the power to block judicial nominations, limit President Donald Trump's remaining agenda, and launch investigations of his administration, BBC News reports. Billions of dollars have poured into the full slate of 35 contests, but party control is expected to hinge on a small cluster of races.

Why is Alaska considered the tipping-point state?

Alaska may be the last state to report results given its slower vote count, which could make it the deciding race if control of the Senate comes down to the wire, according to BBC News. Two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 61, a Marine Corps reservist who retired in 2024 after 30 years of service including deployments to Afghanistan and the Middle East, faces Democrat Mary Peltola, 53, a former House member and the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. Peltola is campaigning on what BBC News describes as a platform of "fish, family, freedom" while attacking Sullivan's record as Alaska's former natural resources commissioner.

"Fish, family, freedom" — the campaign framing Mary Peltola has used against Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, per BBC News.

Alaska's ranked-choice voting system adds another layer of uncertainty, and the state has a history of being difficult to poll, with surveys historically underestimating Republican support, BBC News notes.

What is the dispute over two candidates named Dan Sullivan?

The race has been complicated by a second candidate who shares the senator's name, Dan Sullivan, an independent who advanced to the final four. The Republican senator has accused Peltola's campaign of recruiting that candidate to confuse voters — an allegation her campaign denies, according to BBC News. The matter is the subject of a state investigation and a Justice Department lawsuit, which a judge rejected on Sunday, BBC News reports.

How does Susan Collins compare to her challenger in Maine?

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins — one of the few GOP senators who voted to convict Trump during his 2021 impeachment trial — has a track record of outperforming her party in a Democratic-leaning state by positioning herself as independent-minded, BBC News reports. Her opponent, Troy Jackson, draws on his background as a lumberjack to appeal to blue-collar voters in the state.

What should readers watch for on election night?

• Whether Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation extends the count past election night, potentially delaying a final national tally
• How the disputed second Dan Sullivan candidacy affects vote splitting among Republican-leaning voters
• Whether Collins again outruns her party's performance in Maine, as she has in past cycles
• Turnout among blue-collar voters in Maine responding to Troy Jackson's lumberjack background

Follow live results via BBC News' coverage of the midterm elections.