What We Know About Ryanair's Pay Freeze and Fare Hike Plans

Ryanair is weighing a temporary freeze on staff pay and has confirmed that airfares will be "materially higher" next summer, the airline said, pointing to a sharp rise in fuel costs tied to the US-Israel war with Iran, according to the BBC.

The budget carrier said it expects fuel prices to stay elevated "well into 2027" unless there is a "swift resolution" to the conflict. Chief executive Michael O'Leary said fares would need to rise by "double-digits" to help offset the increase, though he said the airline likely will not reach the roughly 20% increase he had floated earlier in the year.

Why is Ryanair considering a pay freeze?

Ryanair said it is looking into "temporary pay freezes" as existing multi-year wage agreements with staff — what the airline called "maturing labour agreements" — come to an end. The policy could take effect from April 2027, according to the airline's statement cited by the BBC. Unite, the union representing Ryanair staff, had not responded to a BBC request for comment as of publication.

How much will airfares rise?

O'Leary reiterated an earlier forecast that Ryanair would "need a 20% fare increase" to cover the added cost of jet fuel, but told the BBC, "I'm not sure we'll get to 20%." He added: "But we're certainly looking at double-digit fare increases across Europe from all airlines in 2027." The company has not specified an exact percentage for its own fares beyond describing the planned increase as "materially higher" for next summer.

What is driving Ryanair's fuel costs higher?

Aviation fuel prices have surged this year because of the US-Israel war with Iran, which the airline said has sharply reduced the flow of refined products from the Gulf and intensified competition for fuel produced elsewhere, per the BBC report. Ryanair said its fuel bill is forecast to run €2bn (£1.6bn) higher in the short term as a result.

The carrier said about 80% of its fuel needs are "hedged" — bought in advance at fixed prices — which has limited its exposure so far. But the cost of the remaining, unhedged portion has climbed sharply, the airline said, leaving it exposed to further price swings if the conflict drags on.

How did Ryanair's profits change this half?

Ryanair reported that pre-tax profit fell 16% to €2.4bn for the six months ending in September, which the airline attributed largely to higher fuel costs, which it said jumped 15% during the period. The airline framed the wage-freeze consideration and the planned fare increases as direct responses to that margin pressure rather than a broader restructuring.

What has Ryanair said about AI and back-office jobs?

Alongside the pay and fare measures, Ryanair said it would increase its use of artificial intelligence within back-office and support functions, according to the BBC. The airline did not detail which roles would be affected or whether the AI expansion is linked to the pay-freeze consideration, and the BBC report did not include further specifics on headcount or departments.

What to watch

• Whether Unite or other staff representatives respond publicly to the pay-freeze proposal before any April 2027 implementation date.
• Whether Ryanair, or rival European carriers, specify an exact fare-increase percentage for summer 2027 bookings.
• Any shift in the US-Israel-Iran conflict that could ease Gulf refined-product supply and lower jet fuel costs before "well into 2027," the window Ryanair cited.
• Ryanair's next trading update, which would show whether the 15% fuel-cost jump and 16% profit decline reported for the six months to September persist into the following quarter.
• Details on which back-office or support functions see AI adoption, and whether that affects the pay-freeze calculus the airline described.

Ryanair did not provide a specific timetable for finalizing the pay-freeze decision beyond the possible April 2027 start, and the BBC report does not indicate when the airline expects to confirm final 2027 fare levels.