What We Know About College Football's CFP Playoff Tiers

Miami is the only team ESPN places in its top playoff tier entering the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, according to analysis published Nov. 1 by ESPN writer Bill Connelly, who covers college football, soccer and tennis for the network and has been with ESPN since 2019. His breakdown sorts 29 contenders into tiers based on their odds of landing one of the 12 playoff spots, using a blend of two statistical tools, ESPN reports.

What are the CFP playoff tiers, and how are they calculated?

Connelly groups teams by combining two sources: the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds generated by his own SP+ rankings system. "I like creating an average of the two sources because it smooths out some of the rough edges in both models," Connelly writes. The result is a tiered ranking of playoff likelihood rather than a straight numerical ladder, meant to capture which programs are effectively locked in, which are fighting for position, and which still need help. The exercise arrives just ahead of the CFP selection committee's first official rankings of the season, due out Tuesday.

Why does Miami sit alone in Tier 1?

Miami enters at 8-0 with average playoff odds of 98.3%, the only team Connelly places in his top tier. The Hurricanes needed a late push to beat North Carolina on Saturday night: the Tar Heels took a fourth-quarter lead before Miami answered with a nine-play touchdown drive, then added a defensive score. "The response to adversity was strong, just as it was a couple of weeks ago against Florida State," Connelly writes.

That resilience has masked a defensive slide. Miami has allowed 31 points per game over its last three outings, according to Connelly, forcing an offense he calls "amazing" to carry the team. That imbalance is why Miami is projected as an underdog in its coming trip to Notre Dame, even with its playoff odds essentially locked in.

By the numbers

• 8-0 — Miami's record through Week 9
• 98.3% — Miami's average playoff odds, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor/SP+ blend
• 31 points per game — Miami's defensive average allowed over its last three games

What happened to Ohio State, Indiana and BYU in Week 9?

Connelly frames Week 9 as a split week for the sport's top programs. No. 1 Miami, No. 4 Indiana and No. 8 BYU all survived tighter-than-expected games: Indiana needed overtime to beat Minnesota, and BYU escaped with a close win over Arizona State. Ohio State was the exception that fell the other way, losing to USC in what Connelly describes as a matchup against "a wounded Ohio State." As he puts it, "a lot of its surprises were either (A) games that were projected to be close but were blowouts instead or (B) close calls for top teams."

When do the first official CFP rankings come out?

The selection committee is scheduled to release its first rankings of the 2026 season on Tuesday, Connelly's piece notes, which is why the tier exercise is being published now — as a preview rather than a prediction of the committee's actual order. Connelly frames the moment as a turning point for the season at large: "It's November now," he writes. "Virtually everything we eventually remember about the 2026 season will happen from this point forward."

"The response to adversity was strong, just as it was a couple of weeks ago against Florida State." — Bill Connelly, ESPN

What should fans watch for next in the playoff race?

Connelly's tiers are built to move week to week as results come in, and his own analysis flags several pressure points still to be resolved before the committee locks in its picture.

What to watch:

• Miami's trip to Notre Dame, where the Hurricanes are projected underdogs despite their playoff odds
• Whether Miami's defense, which has allowed 31 points per game over three straight weeks, tightens up against stronger competition
• How the selection committee's first rankings Tuesday compare with Connelly's tier-based projections
• Whether Indiana and BYU, both needing extra time to beat lesser opponents in Week 9, face tougher tests that better clarify their standing
• How USC's win over Ohio State reshapes the group of teams below the top tier

The full tier breakdown, including teams below Miami's Tier 1 grouping, is detailed in Connelly's original analysis at ESPN.