Quilty Space Report Finds Rocket Launch Shortage Worse Than Expected

A shortfall of roughly 150 rocket launches will hit the commercial space market outside China between now and 2030, according to a new report from analytics firm Quilty Space detailed by Ars Technica. That gap could double if U.S. military launch demand is factored in and SpaceX does not extend its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs to cover national security missions, the report found.

"What we wanted to get at is to understand how severe this launch crisis is and when will it be resolved," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, according to Ars Technica. "What we learned is that the launch crisis is more severe than we thought and that it will not go away this decade for sure, and it might not abate until sometime late in the 2030s."

Why is there a rocket shortage right now?

The report points to several converging factors, per Ars Technica's reporting: the war in Ukraine has removed Russian rockets from the Western market, Amazon's Leo constellation is driving new demand, and a new generation of rockets — New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R and Nova — has faced development delays. SpaceX has compounded the squeeze by winding down the Falcon 9 as a commercial-service rocket, the report states.

At the same time, demand for launch capacity is climbing from megaconstellation operators such as Amazon and from a wave of small-satellite startups, according to the report.

Can Starship solve the shortage?

Starship's size and reuse potential give it the theoretical capacity to absorb much of the backlog, the Quilty report notes. But SpaceX has pulled back from marketing it as a commercial launch vehicle. "SpaceX has also stopped affirming Starship as a commercial launcher," the report states, as cited by Ars Technica.

Ars Technica also reports there is no evidence SpaceX is developing a conventional payload fairing door for Starship that would let it carry traditional satellites. Instead, the vehicle appears set to keep flying with its narrow, Starlink-optimized door, which deploys satellites individually rather than housing a standard payload bay. SpaceX has made no recent public commitment to a wider fairing, and some customers told Ars Technica they do not expect one soon. Telesat chief executive Dan Goldberg was asked about the company's rocket options during a Thursday earnings call, according to the outlet's reporting.

By the numbers

• ~150 launches — the projected shortfall outside China through 2030, per Quilty Space.
• 2028 — the year Quilty Space expects the crunch to become most acute before gradually easing.
• Late 2030s — the point by which Henry said the shortage might not fully abate.
• 2x — the potential size of the shortfall if U.S. military demand is added and SpaceX does not extend Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy service.

When does the crunch ease, and what should operators do?

Quilty Space projects the shortage will peak in 2028 and improve slowly after that, but Henry offered no clear playbook for companies caught in the gap. "How should people react and plan around this? To be honest, I don't have a good answer," he said, according to Ars Technica. "If you haven't booked your launch already, and you need one, you're late."

What to watch

• Whether SpaceX reverses course and markets Starship as a commercial launcher for conventional satellites.
• Whether SpaceX extends Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy availability for national security missions, which would shrink the combined civil-military shortfall.
• Progress — or further delay — on New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R and Nova, the next-generation rockets the report cites as key supply additions.
• Whether SpaceX commits publicly to a wider Starship payload fairing door, which customers like Telesat are watching closely.

Glossary

• Payload fairing — the nose-cone structure on a rocket that protects a satellite during launch and separates to release it in orbit; Starship currently lacks a conventional version.
• Megaconstellation — a large fleet of satellites, often numbering in the thousands, such as Amazon's Leo project, designed to provide broad coverage and requiring frequent launches.
• Falcon 9 retirement (commercial) — SpaceX's move to wind down Falcon 9 as an option for commercial customers, cited in the report as a factor tightening launch supply.

The full Quilty Space findings, along with additional reporting on SpaceX's Starship fairing plans, are detailed in Ars Technica's Oct. 30 report.