19 Seats: How Arab Parties Could Decide Israel's Next Government

Two Palestinian-led parties walked away from Israel's October 27 election with 19 of the Knesset's 120 seats, enough to tip control of the next government to whichever bloc is willing to work with them, according to Al Jazeera. Neither of Israel's two main camps has claimed a majority on its own, leaving that math impossible to ignore — even as most of the country's leading politicians are trying to.

How many seats did Arab-led parties actually win?

The United Arab List, known as Ra'am, and the Joint List combined for 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset, Al Jazeera reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud emerged as the single largest party, but his bloc fell short of the 61 seats needed to govern. The rival "Zionist" opposition coalition came up short as well, according to the outlet's count, meaning neither side can form a government without support it has so far refused to accept.

Why did Palestinian turnout surge this year?

An estimated 80 percent of eligible Palestinian citizens of Israel turned out to vote, Al Jazeera reported — a sharp jump for a community that makes up about 21 percent of Israel's population. The outlet attributed the surge to anger over the war in Gaza and what analysts quoted in its reporting described as overt racism within the governing coalition. At Joint List campaign headquarters in Nazareth, supporters gathered to celebrate the result, according to the Al Jazeera photo caption documenting the scene.

How has Netanyahu's Likud responded to the Arab vote?

Rather than treat the turnout as a normal democratic outcome, Likud cast it as a security concern. Al Jazeera reported that the party called on the Shin Bet, Israel's internal security service, to investigate possible foreign interference behind the scale of Palestinian participation. Likud also framed the result as an attempt at the "Islamisation of Israel" and "an attempt to steal the election," according to the outlet's reporting on the party's public statements.

"Arab voice doesn't count" — the framing Al Jazeera says has defined how Jewish Israeli political blocs have treated the Palestinian vote since the election.

Will the Jewish-led opposition work with Arab parties?

So far, no. Al Jazeera reported that much of Israel's Jewish-led opposition has criticized Netanyahu's government as corrupt and damaging to the country's international standing, yet has remained reluctant to formally partner with Ra'am or the Joint List to deny him a governing coalition. That reluctance leaves the bloc that needs Arab votes most unwilling to accept them, according to the outlet's account of the post-election landscape.

What happens next in forming a government?

Al Jazeera's reporting does not indicate that either bloc has resolved the standoff. With Likud short of a majority and the opposition coalition also unable to reach 61 seats without Arab-party backing, the question of whether either camp will negotiate with Ra'am or the Joint List remains open. The outcome will determine not only who leads the next government but whether Palestinian citizens of Israel are treated as a governing partner or continue to be cast, in Likud's framing, as a security question to be investigated rather than a constituency to be counted.

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