NBC's Lapinski: Early Midterm Voting Data Signals High Turnout

Millions of Americans had already voted ahead of Election Day, and NBC News Director of Elections John Lapinski says the pace of early ballots points to strong turnout in the 2026 midterms, according to an NBC News segment posted Oct. 29, 2026.

"With millions of Americans having already voted, NBC News Director of Elections John Lapinski analyzes early midterm voting data and key races to watch on election night." — NBC News

What does the early vote count show?

Lapinski's review of ballots cast before Election Day is built around the same question decided races always turn on: whether early enthusiasm converts into a turnout edge for one side on the day itself. NBC News did not publish a state-by-state vote tally in the segment description, but Lapinski's role — he leads the network's election-night data operation — puts the early numbers at the center of how NBC will call races once polls close.

Which Senate races are drawing the closest scrutiny?

NBC's midterm coverage lineup alongside the Lapinski segment points to several contests the network is tracking into election night. In Iowa, Senate candidate Josh Turek has said he would not move to impeach President Trump, while Republican Ashley Hinson has also drawn separate NBC coverage in the race. In Kansas, NBC reporting has centered on voters citing affordability as the top issue in a competitive Senate contest. In Alaska, the network has examined whether rising gas prices in rural parts of the state could shape the Senate outcome. And in Texas, NBC has reported that a Russian operative is likely behind fake videos targeting Senate candidate James Talarico, adding a disinformation thread to that race's final stretch.

Where does the Pennsylvania governor's race fit in?

Outside the Senate map, NBC's midterm slate includes Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who has said he will stand up to President Trump heading into the vote — a sign that governor's races, not just congressional contests, are part of the network's election-night watch list.

What to watch on election night

• Whether early-vote enthusiasm in states like Iowa, Kansas and Alaska translates into Election Day turnout for either party
• How affordability and gas-price concerns register in exit polling in Kansas and Alaska
• Whether disinformation targeting candidates, such as the fake videos aimed at Texas's James Talarico, affects late deciders
• Results in Pennsylvania's governor's race alongside the Senate contests NBC has flagged
• Any Justice Department legal action tied to the midterms that could affect vote counting or certification

How can voters follow the full analysis?

NBC News has built its midterm night coverage around Lapinski's data unit, with the early-voting segment serving as a preview of the races and turnout patterns the network plans to track as results come in. The full video, along with NBC's related race-by-race reporting, is available on NBC News' site.