World Bank Projects 23% Rise in Commodity Prices for 2026

The World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026, citing the Middle East war and other global shocks as drivers of the increase, according to a report from Reuters. The forecast marks a significant upward revision for a category of goods — including energy, food and metals — that underpins pricing decisions for governments, manufacturers and consumers worldwide.

What does the World Bank's forecast say?

Reuters reports the World Bank's updated projection calls for commodity prices to climb 23% in 2026, a figure the lender attributes directly to the war in the Middle East alongside additional, unspecified shocks to global supply chains. The report does not break the forecast down commodity by commodity in the material reviewed, but the scale of the revision signals that the bank views current geopolitical and supply pressures as more severe than earlier projections anticipated.

Why does the World Bank cite the Middle East war?

Conflict in the Middle East has historically weighed on global commodity markets because the region sits at the center of energy production and shipping routes that move oil, gas and other goods to buyers around the world. Reuters' framing of the World Bank's forecast places the war alongside other disruptions as a primary cause of the projected price increase, without detailing which specific commodities the bank expects to be hit hardest.

What other shocks are driving prices higher?

The Reuters report references "other shocks" contributing to the World Bank's 23% projection but does not specify what those additional disruptions are. The language suggests the bank's forecast reflects a combination of factors beyond the Middle East conflict alone, though the full list of contributing events was not detailed in the available reporting.

How would a 23% increase affect consumers and economies?

Commodity price swings of this magnitude typically ripple through to inflation readings, since energy and food costs feed directly into consumer price indexes in most economies. Countries that import the bulk of their energy and food supplies tend to feel the effect fastest, while commodity-exporting nations can see government revenue and trade balances shift as prices rise. The World Bank's 23% figure, as reported by Reuters, would represent a notable swing for household budgets and corporate input costs if it materializes as projected.

What happens next?

The World Bank periodically updates its commodity price outlook as new data on supply, demand and geopolitical developments becomes available. Reuters' report on the 2026 forecast did not indicate a specific date for the bank's next revision. Policymakers and businesses that rely on commodity inputs are likely to watch for further guidance from the World Bank and other multilateral lenders as the Middle East conflict and other disruptions continue to evolve.

Full details of the World Bank's methodology and commodity-by-commodity breakdown were not included in the source material reviewed for this report. Readers can follow the original Reuters dispatch for additional reporting as it becomes available.