China's elderly now outnumber children in family support

Families in China are now supporting more elderly relatives than children, according to government data cited by BBC News. The ratio of dependent elderly people to the working-age population rose to 23% last year, surpassing the child dependency ratio of 22%, BBC News reported, citing figures released by China's National Bureau of Statistics.

What do the new figures show?

China now has more than 223 million people aged 65 and older, or nearly 16% of the total population, BBC News reported. The country has about 213 million children aged 14 and under. No official commentary accompanied the statistics release, according to BBC News.

Why is China's population aging so fast?

State-controlled outlet Global Times, as cited by BBC News, attributed the shift to the size of past birth cohorts and longer life expectancy, describing it as China's "entry into a moderately ageing society." A researcher quoted by Global Times said the trend "reflects a historical trend in demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon."

Rapid urbanization and the one-child policy, in effect from 1980 until the end of 2015, have also driven the shift, BBC News reported. China's government estimates the policy prevented about 400 million births, though BBC News noted that figure has been contested. National University of Singapore sociology lecturer Mu Zheng told BBC News the policy left fewer young people available to support a growing elderly population.

What does this mean for pensions and spending?

The shift could strain pension, healthcare and long-term care systems while expanding the so-called silver economy that serves older consumers, Global Times said, according to BBC News. Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, called the demographic crossover "symbolic" and said it could push public spending from families and schools toward pensions and healthcare, BBC News reported.

Mu said the trend may also limit economic growth and consumer spending power as the working-age population shrinks relative to retirees.

What is Beijing doing about falling birth rates?

China has urged younger generations to marry and have more children in recent years, BBC News reported. Despite easing family-size restrictions, birth rates have kept falling to historic lows. Mu pointed to changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels as additional pressures on fertility, according to BBC News.

BBC News reported that the figures are being watched closely for what they signal about China's shrinking workforce and its effect on both the domestic economy and global growth. The data mark the first time the elderly dependency ratio has exceeded the child dependency ratio in China, according to the National Bureau of Statistics figures cited by BBC News.

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