Amazon Deforestation Falls 41.8% to Record Low Before Runoff

Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reported that forest clearance in the Amazon fell 41.8% over the past year to 3,335 square kilometres, the lowest annual total since satellite monitoring began in 1988, according to The Guardian.

What does the Prodes system actually measure?

The figure comes from Prodes, INPE's satellite program that tracks annual clear-cutting across the Brazilian Amazon and is widely treated by researchers as the most accurate measure of deforestation in the biome, the Guardian reports. The program compiles yearly totals rather than real-time alerts, producing a single annual benchmark that governments, lenders and commodity buyers use to judge enforcement.

How does this year's number compare with recent history?

The 3,335 sq km figure beats the previous record low by 1,236 sq km — an area the Guardian says is roughly the size of Rio de Janeiro. Measured against 2022, the year before President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's current term began, the deforestation rate has slowed by 71.2%, INPE's data show. The outlet attributes the decline largely to stronger enforcement measures and state investment in environmental agencies under the Lula administration.

Which states still account for most of the clearing?

Pará registered 33.9% of all Amazon deforestation in the year, followed by Mato Grosso at 25.5% and Amazonas at 15.7%, according to the data. Even in those three states, clearing fell by more than 45% from the prior year. Roraima was the outlier: deforestation there rose 0.4%, the only state where the trend moved the wrong way. The Guardian notes Roraima is a stronghold for Bolsonaro-aligned politics.

Why does the Cerrado figure matter alongside the Amazon number?

Outside the Amazon, the neighboring Cerrado savanna recorded its lowest annual deforestation since 2001, at 5,516 sq km, per INPE data cited by the Guardian. The outlet describes the Cerrado as a region "long been treated as an area of environmental sacrifice," making the decline there a secondary indicator of whether agricultural expansion is shifting away from land clearing nationwide.

What's at stake in the Oct. 25 runoff?

Lula, who fell behind in the first round of voting despite the deforestation record, faces Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, in an Oct. 25 presidential runoff. The two candidates hold, per the Guardian, "sharply different visions for the future of the rainforest" — a divide the outlet ties directly to how Brazil's environmental policy would shape relations with the United States under President Donald Trump. INPE's record-low figure gives the incumbent a concrete data point heading into the vote, but the Guardian frames the trend's durability as contingent on who wins.

By the numbers

• Amazon deforestation: 3,335 sq km, down 41.8% year over year — lowest since 1988 records began
• Decline since 2022: 71.2%
• Cerrado deforestation: 5,516 sq km, lowest since 2001
• Pará's share of Amazon clearing: 33.9%; Mato Grosso: 25.5%; Amazonas: 15.7%
• Roraima: the one state where deforestation rose, up 0.4%

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