Democrats Request Fewer Mail Ballots, NBC Analysis Finds

Democrats are requesting fewer mail ballots than in past elections but returning the ones they do request more quickly, according to an analysis published Oct. 9 by the NBC News Decision Desk, conducted in coordination with researchers at the University of Pennsylvania.

The analysis, released less than four weeks before Election Day, examined early-vote data in North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. It found a measurable shift in how Democratic voters are approaching mail balloting this cycle compared with prior election years, authors Michael Morse and Marc Meredith wrote.

What does the analysis show about Democrats and mail ballots?

The core finding is twofold: Democrats are requesting mail ballots at a lower rate than they have in recent election cycles, and among those who do request a ballot, the return rate is faster than in the past, according to the NBC News analysis. The authors wrote that the pattern suggests Democratic voters may be shifting toward in-person voting, or are taking extra steps to make sure a mailed ballot arrives before any deadline.

Since 2020, Democratic voters have used mail ballots at higher rates than Republicans, the analysis noted, a pattern that has shaped how election-night returns typically shift as more ballots are counted. A change in that underlying behavior would make it harder to read early turnout signals the way analysts have in the past two cycles.

How did NBC News and Penn conduct the analysis?

The Decision Desk compared current mail-ballot request and return data against historical figures from the same point in the election calendar across the four states. Data for North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania came from public state election records, while Virginia figures were sourced from L2, a voter-data firm, according to the NBC News report. The side-by-side comparison allowed the authors to isolate whether 2026 behavior diverges from prior midterm and presidential cycles rather than reflecting normal year-to-year noise.

Why are mail voting patterns changing this cycle?

The analysis points to two overlapping pressures. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized mail voting, making unfounded claims about fraud tied to the practice, NBC News reported. Separately, the U.S. Postal Service has drawn scrutiny over slower delivery times, which voting rights groups and Democratic officials had already cited as a reason to steer voters toward alternative methods before this election cycle, according to the analysis.

The Trump administration also pushed for greater control over the Postal Service heading into the midterms. Just months before states began mailing midterm ballots, the Postal Service adopted new rules, directed by the administration, governing how election officials transmit ballots to voters, the NBC News report said. Those new requirements will not apply to this year's midterm elections, according to the analysis, though the broader concern about postal reliability appears to be shaping voter choices regardless.

What does this mean for election night results?

The practical stakes center on how analysts and campaigns read early returns. Because Democrats have mailed ballots at higher rates since 2020, election-night counting has produced predictable shifts — sometimes called red or blue “mirages” — as mail ballots are tabulated after in-person votes. If Democratic voters are now relying less on mail ballots and returning them faster when they do, those familiar patterns could look different this November, the analysis suggested, making it harder to use early vote totals as a proxy for which party's base is more energized.

What remains uncertain about the shift?

The NBC News analysis is based on ballot requests and returns in four states — North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Pennsylvania — not a nationwide sample, and the piece frames its conclusions as reflecting a changing landscape rather than a settled outcome. The authors did not publish a numerical breakdown of the size of the shift in the portion of the analysis reviewed for this report, and the full scope of how the pattern plays out will not be clear until ballots are counted in November. The analysis also does not establish how much of the change is driven by distrust in the Postal Service versus voters’ own preference for in-person voting.

Fulton County, Georgia, where election workers processed absentee ballots during the 2024 cycle, is among the areas where officials have handled large volumes of mail returns in recent elections, according to an image credit accompanying the NBC News report.

The analysis is scheduled to be followed by further Decision Desk updates as more states report mail-ballot activity ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to NBC News.

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