Washington — Senator Who Sought Betting Ban Now Lobbies for Kalshi

Former Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who helped write the law federal regulators now use to decide whether prediction markets can offer sports betting, lobbies on behalf of Kalshi to keep that betting legal, according to Ars Technica.

What did Lincoln warn Congress about in 2010?

As chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, Lincoln told fellow senators during Dodd-Frank floor proceedings in July 2010 that prediction markets could be built to dodge gambling law. "It would be quite easy to construct an event contract around sporting events such as the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby, and Masters golf tournament," she said, according to the Senate record cited by Ars Technica. "These types of contracts would not serve any real commercial purpose. Rather, they would be used solely for gambling."

How did Dodd-Frank put the CFTC in charge of that decision?

Lincoln was a primary author of Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act, which handed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulatory authority over swaps, including event contracts. Ars Technica reports she defined "public interest" broadly in the statute specifically so the agency could prohibit contracts that exist mainly to enable gambling. Congress did not ban sports-event contracts outright; it left that call to the executive branch.

Why is Lincoln now representing Kalshi?

Lincoln now lobbies the CFTC and Congress for Kalshi, urging looser rules on sports-event contracts, per Ars Technica's review of lobbying filings. The firm she founded has taken $480,000 from Kalshi since 2024 for that work, the outlet reports.

"It would be quite easy to construct an event contract around sporting events such as the Super Bowl, the Kentucky Derby, and Masters golf tournament. These types of contracts would not serve any real commercial purpose. Rather, they would be used solely for gambling." — Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Senate floor remarks, July 2010

What changed between the Biden and Trump administrations?

The regulatory discretion Lincoln's own statute created has swung with the White House. The Biden administration discouraged sports-event contracts on prediction markets, Ars Technica reports, while the Trump administration has used that same Dodd-Frank authority to allow them — the opening Kalshi has used to expand sports betting through its platform.

By the numbers

• 2010: Year Lincoln helped write the Dodd-Frank provision giving the CFTC power to ban gambling-style event contracts.
• $480,000: Payments Lincoln's lobbying firm has received from Kalshi since 2024, per Ars Technica.

What to watch next

• Whether the CFTC issues formal guidance or rulemaking on sports-event contracts under the current administration.
• New lobbying disclosure filings showing additional Kalshi spending tied to Lincoln's firm.
• Congressional hearings revisiting Dodd-Frank's event-contract language now that enforcement has flipped between administrations.
• Competing prediction-market operators' responses if the CFTC formalizes looser sports-betting rules.

The full lobbying history and Senate record are detailed in Ars Technica's report.