Paxton Says Gas Prices From Iran War Hurt Republicans in Leaked Audio

Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general running as the Republican nominee for a competitive U.S. Senate seat, told donors at a closed-door fundraising event that rising fuel prices tied to President Donald Trump's Iran war, not tariffs, are the drag on his campaign, according to audio shared with Axios and reported by The Guardian.

Asked what issues were hurting his race, Paxton reportedly said, "It's not tariffs … it's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel." He added that affordability was the Republican Party's "biggest problem" heading into next month's midterms, citing polling that shows Democrats ahead in several competitive races, including his own, the Guardian reported.

What exactly did Paxton say about diesel prices?

Paxton pointed to a specific threshold in the recording: "When it's over $6 per gallon for diesel … people are feeling the pinch," he said, according to the audio obtained by Axios. The Guardian's report does not specify the geographic scope of that $6 figure or whether it reflects a national average, a Texas-specific price, or Paxton's own estimate. No government fuel-price index or Energy Department figure accompanies the claim in the available reporting, so the number should be read as Paxton's characterization rather than a verified benchmark.

How was this recording obtained, and who verified it?

The audio was shared with Axios from what the Guardian describes as a closed-door fundraising event — the kind of private gathering where candidates sometimes speak more candidly than in public settings. The Guardian's own reporting relies on that recording and does not independently detail the chain of custody beyond crediting the audio to Axios. As with any leaked recording, the method of capture and the identity of whoever shared it with reporters remain outside the public record in the sourcing available here.

What is Paxton's campaign saying now that the audio is public?

Madison Cercy, a spokesperson for Paxton's campaign, called the comments "a non-story" in a statement to the Guardian. "The attorney general said what every Texan already knows: gas and diesel prices are too high, and hardworking Texans are struggling at the pump and at the grocery store," Cercy said, adding that Trump is doing everything he can on the issue, according to the statement cited by the Guardian.

"It's not tariffs … it's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel." — Ken Paxton, in audio from a closed-door fundraising event

That framing — that fuel costs are a shared, acknowledged problem rather than a political liability specific to Paxton — is the central tension in how the campaign is handling the leak.

Why does this matter for the Texas Senate race specifically?

Trump selected Paxton as the Republican candidate for the seat and is scheduled to appear with him at a rally in San Antonio the evening the story published, the Guardian reported. Paxton's private remarks suggest he views the race as shaped by forces outside his control. "So many factors in this federal race are uncontrollable," Paxton reportedly told attendees. "I don't make the decisions, and I don't, you know, I don't know what's behind some of the decisions."

The Guardian noted that Paxton cited polling showing Democrats ahead in multiple competitive Senate races, including his, though the report does not include the specific polling source, sample size, or margin for that claim.

What the record shows and doesn't

• Diesel price claim: Paxton cited a "$6 per gallon" diesel threshold; the report does not specify time frame or geography for that figure.
• Election timing: The midterms are described as being "next month" from the Oct. 7, 2026 publication date, with a Trump-Paxton rally in San Antonio the same evening the story ran.
• Polling claim: Paxton said Democrats are ahead in several competitive races; no polling organization, sample size, or margin of error is named in the available reporting.

What should voters watch for before the midterms?

• Whether Trump or his administration offers new data on gasoline and diesel prices to counter the affordability narrative Paxton described privately.
• Whether additional audio from the same fundraising circuit surfaces, given that this recording reached reporters through a leak rather than a public appearance.
• How Paxton's campaign reconciles the private admission that the war and fuel prices are "dragging" the race with its public line that his comments are a "non-story."
• Whether independent polling outlets publish Senate race numbers for Texas that can be checked against Paxton's claim of a Democratic lead.

The Guardian's report attributes all quotations above to the audio recording shared with Axios and to a campaign statement provided directly to the Guardian; no additional on-the-record Republican or Democratic strategist commentary appears in the sourcing reviewed for this article.