What We Know About Quebec's Parti Québécois Election Win

The Parti Québécois won the most seats in Quebec's provincial election on Monday, positioning the secessionist party to form the next government and pursue a third referendum on leaving Canada, according to Al Jazeera, which cited AP and Reuters.

Party leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is set to become premier. Quebec's National Assembly, the province's 127-seat legislature, requires 64 seats for a party to hold a majority. As of the results reported Monday, it was not yet clear whether the Parti Québécois, known as the PQ, had crossed that threshold, Al Jazeera reported. A shortfall would leave the party leading a minority government, meaning it would need support from opposition lawmakers to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes.

How big a swing was this for the PQ?

The result marks a sharp reversal from 2022, when the PQ won just three seats in the National Assembly, according to Al Jazeera. The party last governed Quebec from 2012 to 2014. Monday's win ends eight years in power for the Coalition Avenir Québec, a centre-right Quebec nationalist party that supports staying in Canada.

What did Plamondon promise during the campaign?

Plamondon campaigned on holding a third referendum on Quebec independence during his first term as premier, Al Jazeera reported. He said he would wait until US President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029 before calling the vote. Quebec held independence referendums in 1980 and 1995; voters rejected secession both times, with the 1995 vote decided by a narrow margin. No referendum has followed in the three decades since.

Does the election reflect rising support for independence?

Not according to Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, who told The Associated Press that the PQ's seat total reflects Quebec's multiparty system, where support splits across several parties, rather than a surge in secessionist sentiment. Béland said support for independence sits at about 30 percent, which he characterized as low by historical standards, Al Jazeera reported.

What does the result mean for Prime Minister Mark Carney?

The PQ victory tests Carney's message of national unity, Al Jazeera reported, and arrives weeks before an independence-related referendum in Alberta. Béland told AP that the timing could carry weight in Washington: "Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney," he said.

Glossary

• National Assembly: Quebec's 127-seat provincial legislature; a party needs 64 seats to govern with a majority.
• Minority government: A government formed by a party that falls short of a legislative majority and must rely on other parties' votes to pass laws or survive no-confidence motions.
• Secession referendum: A province-wide vote asking residents whether Quebec should become an independent country separate from Canada; Quebec held such votes in 1980 and 1995, both rejected by voters.
• Parti Québécois (PQ): The provincial party that campaigns explicitly for Quebec independence from Canada, distinct from the Coalition Avenir Québec, which backs Quebec nationalism within Canada.

What happens next

Final seat counts will determine whether the PQ governs with a majority or must negotiate with opposition parties on confidence votes and legislation. Plamondon's stated timeline ties any referendum push to the end of Trump's presidential term in January 2029, leaving roughly three years before a vote could be called. Quebec's result also lands close to Alberta's own independence-related referendum, a pairing Béland flagged as a fresh test of Carney's unity message, according to Al Jazeera's reporting.

How does the Alberta vote factor in?

Alberta's own independence-related referendum is set to take place roughly two weeks after Quebec's election, according to Al Jazeera's reporting of Béland's comments. Béland framed the proximity of the two votes as significant for how Ottawa's position is read abroad, telling AP that a PQ win just before the Alberta vote could signal to the Trump administration that Canadian national unity remains unsettled even as Carney holds broad popularity. Al Jazeera did not report further detail on the Alberta referendum's scope or ballot question in its coverage of the Quebec result.