What We Know About White House Midterm Worries This Fall

President Donald Trump has told aides he believes Republicans can still outperform expectations in November, while his own staff is privately preparing for the possibility of losing both the House and Senate, according to WIRED, which cited multiple sources inside Trumpworld.

What does Trump believe about the midterms?

Trump has pointed aides to internal polling showing Republicans trailing by smaller margins in individual House races than public surveys suggest, WIRED reported. That data has shaped his more optimistic public posture even as national numbers worsen.

How bad are the numbers for Republicans right now?

A Wall Street Journal poll put Trump's approval rating at 37 percent, which WIRED describes as the lowest for any president heading into a midterm election in polling dating back to 1990. One unnamed Trumpworld operative, who correctly forecast Trump's 2024 battleground sweep weeks in advance, told WIRED: "Oh, yeah, we're going to get creamed."

By the numbers

• 37 percent: Trump's approval rating in a recent Wall Street Journal poll, the lowest pre-midterm mark since 1990, per WIRED.
• $4.43: the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline this month, according to AAA data cited by WIRED, with diesel hitting a record high in the same period.

How is the White House responding publicly?

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle rejected the premise of internal panic, telling WIRED: "No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement. The choice has never been more clear: doubling down on President Trump's winning, commonsense agenda or the Democrats' extreme liberal policies and obstruction."

Why is the administration leaning on foreign policy wins?

Sources told WIRED that Trump's team began searching last month for foreign policy victories to energize the MAGA base ahead of November. That search produced a US-Denmark agreement expanding American military access in Greenland, though it fell short of the outright takeover Trump has previously sought. Trump also announced an oil deal with Venezuela that WIRED reports is likely to require renegotiation because its 100-year production concession conflicts with Venezuela's national hydrocarbons law. Voters, however, have stayed focused on domestic costs, including grocery and gas prices, and Trump has diverged from public opinion on AI regulation and data centers, according to WIRED.

What happens if Democrats retake the House or Senate?

WIRED reports the White House is bracing for a wave of subpoenas from a Democratic-controlled Congress. The administration's planned defense rests on two legal tracks: asserting executive privilege and expanding attorney-client protections for senior aides. That second track, according to WIRED, is bolstered by the Supreme Court's 2024 Trump immunity ruling, which found that federal courts cannot "peel back the curtain" on deliberations involving government lawyers.

What is still unresolved?

WIRED's sourcing describes private acknowledgment of a difficult map without naming which chamber, if either, aides believe is salvageable. The originating report does not specify a firm electoral forecast beyond the polling figures and the operative's blunt assessment, leaving the scale of any losses an open question heading into November.

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