London — UK Diesel Price Nears All-Time High, RAC Warns

Drivers filling up in London and across the UK are paying close to record prices for diesel, and the RAC motoring group says the all-time high set in June 2022 will likely fall over the weekend.

The average price of a litre of diesel stood at 198.32p as of this week, according to the RAC. That is just short of the 199.09p record set on June 25, 2022, in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said the record will "almost certainly be surpassed over the weekend as retailers continue to pass on the increases they're seeing when they buy new supply," according to the BBC.

What's pushing diesel prices up right now?

The main driver is the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, which has disrupted oil production and transport across the region for the past seven months. Brent crude, the global benchmark price, was trading around $70 a barrel before the conflict began. It spiked above $120 during heavy fighting, fell back toward $70 after a US-Iran framework deal in June, then climbed again once peace talks broke down. Brent now trades above $100 a barrel.

Analysts told the BBC that every $10 rise in the price of a barrel adds roughly 7p to a litre at the pump. Because oil takes about two weeks to move from wholesale markets to the forecourt, price swings show up at the pump with a delay.

How much have prices actually risen since the war began?

Before the conflict, UK diesel averaged 142.38p a litre and petrol averaged 132.83p, the BBC reported. Diesel has since climbed to 198.32p, while petrol has hit 173.6p — its highest level in more than four years, though still below its 2022 peak of 191.5p.

Could a US export ban make this worse?

President Trump is considering a ban on US diesel producers selling their fuel overseas, a step aimed at lowering domestic prices. The BBC reports that move could push UK diesel prices even higher, since Britain relies in part on imported supply to meet demand.

Are fuel retailers taking advantage of the crisis?

No, according to the UK's markets regulator, which told the BBC it has "not seen evidence of retailers actively changing their pricing strategies to take advantage of the crisis." Drivers can compare station prices through the government's Fuel Finder tool.

former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced in May that a planned 5p fuel duty increase, due in September, would be delayed until the end of December because of the war's impact on pump prices. The RAC says there is "a very strong case" for keeping fuel duty frozen at its current level.

What to watch

• Whether diesel breaks the 199.09p record this weekend, as the RAC expects
• Any formal decision from the Trump administration on a US diesel export ban
• Movement in Brent crude prices tied to Iran war negotiations
• Whether the UK's fuel duty freeze, set to expire at the end of December, gets extended again
• Retail diesel and petrol averages tracked by the RAC in the coming days