Tigrayan Rebels Attack Ethiopian Army, Renewing Civil War Fears

Fighters from Tigray have pushed into Ethiopia's Afar and Amhara regions and seized control of three airports from federal police, escalating fears that Ethiopia could return to the civil war that killed an estimated 600,000 people between 2020 and 2022, The Guardian reported.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the party and paramilitary group that fought Ethiopia's federal army in that war, launched attacks into Afar and Amhara this week as part of a broader push against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Both sides are accusing the other of triggering the return to open conflict, according to the Guardian.

What sparked the new offensive?

On Wednesday the TPLF seized three airports from federal police, prompting Ethiopian Airlines, the state-owned carrier, to suspend flights to the region "due to the current situation," the airline said, per the Guardian. Flights to the historic town of Lalibela were also halted on Thursday because of fighting nearby.

Who is in the new rebel alliance?

Seven armed groups from around Ethiopia, including the TPLF, announced on Sunday the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, an alliance aimed at deposing the government in Addis Ababa, the Guardian reported.

What is happening on the front lines?

A humanitarian source in Afar told Agence France-Presse there were heavy artillery attacks by TPLF forces on Thursday as they attempted to take the town of Yallo, near the Tigrayan border, according to the Guardian's reporting.

Why does the 2020-2022 war still shape these fears?

About 600,000 people died in the earlier war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF, one of the deadliest conflicts of the past decade, the Guardian reported. That toll is now driving comparisons to the current fighting and warnings of siege conditions returning to Tigray.

How are residents in the region reacting?

People in Tigray have been stocking up on food and cash, with one resident telling Reuters that residents fear they could face siege conditions similar to those of the previous war, according to the Guardian's account. In Adigrat, a city near the Eritrean border, a resident described panic buying and empty shop shelves.

"Food shortages are worsening as market shelves sit empty … Essential medicines remain scarce and astronomically expensive. Daily survival has become a constant calculation," the resident told Reuters, as quoted by the Guardian.

By the numbers

• 600,000: estimated deaths in the 2020-2022 Ethiopia-Tigray war, per the Guardian.
• 3: airports seized by TPLF forces from federal police this week.
• 7: armed groups that formed the new Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival on Sunday.

The situation remains fluid, with Ethiopian Airlines' suspended routes and closures near Lalibela signaling the fighting has already disrupted civilian transit beyond the immediate combat zones in Afar and Amhara. Neither the federal government nor the new rebel alliance has publicly detailed further military plans beyond the confirmed airport seizures and cross-border offensives described in the Guardian's reporting.

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