NBC Poll Finds 43% of Voters Want Midterms to Oppose Trump

A new NBC News poll found that 43% of voters say they intend to cast their 2026 midterm ballot specifically to send a message of opposition to President Donald Trump, according to data presented by NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki on Meet the Press on Sept. 20, 2026.

Kornacki walked through the finding as part of a broader segment on how voters feel about both major parties heading into the midterm elections, according to the network's own description of the broadcast.

What does the 43% figure measure?

The number reflects respondents who selected an option indicating their vote is meant to "signal opposition to Trump," the phrase NBC used in framing the question. Pollsters commonly build this kind of item — sometimes called a referendum or proxy-vote question — to separate voters who are choosing a candidate on local merits from those using the ballot as a verdict on the sitting president. A 43% share choosing the opposition framing indicates a plurality-sized bloc organizing its vote around Trump specifically, though the segment as reviewed did not include the poll's full question wording, sample size, field dates, or margin of error.

How did Kornacki present the data on air?

Kornacki appeared on the Sunday program to walk through the poll's topline numbers on both parties ahead of the midterms, per the segment listing on NBC's site. The network's chief data analyst is a regular presence on Meet the Press for exactly this kind of numbers-first breakdown, translating raw survey data into the horse-race and coalition context that shapes midterm coverage. The segment aired alongside other Meet the Press interviews that day, including conversations with Sen. Cory Booker and Sen. John Barrasso on affordability and other issues, based on the program's Sept. 20 lineup.

"43% of voters want midterm vote to 'signal opposition to Trump'" — finding presented by Steve Kornacki, NBC News, Sept. 20, 2026

What other polling did NBC pair with this finding?

The same Meet the Press video library lists a related segment describing "real cracks in the Trump coalition" from earlier NBC polling, suggesting the network has been tracking erosion in Trump's 2024 support base across multiple broadcasts this cycle. NBC did not, in the material reviewed, connect that separate segment's findings numerically to the 43% opposition figure, and the two should be read as distinct data points from the network's ongoing midterm polling rather than a single combined statistic.

How do opposition-vote questions fit into midterm forecasting?

Midterm elections have long functioned partly as a referendum on the party holding the White House, and pollsters use opposition-framed questions like NBC's to gauge how much of the electorate is voting against the president rather than for a specific candidate or local issue. A 43% opposition share does not by itself predict turnout, seat losses, or which races will be competitive — those outcomes depend on district-level dynamics, candidate quality, and turnout patterns not addressed in the Kornacki segment. What the figure does establish, on its face, is the size of the bloc that says explicitly it is casting a protest vote rather than a policy-specific one.

What is missing from the public record so far?

The version of the segment available for review did not include the poll's sponsor or partner pollster, sample size, margin of error, or field dates — details typically published alongside NBC News poll toplines. Readers looking for the underlying crosstabs, including how the 43% breaks down by party, age, or region, should consult NBC News' full poll release when the network publishes it, rather than relying solely on the broadcast summary. NBC News polls are typically accompanied by a separate data memo; none was linked from the video page reviewed for this report.

What comes next in NBC's midterm coverage?

Meet the Press has continued rolling out midterm-focused interviews and data segments through September, including the Booker and Barrasso appearances that aired the same day as Kornacki's presentation. Additional installments of NBC's midterm polling series are likely as the 2026 cycle progresses, based on the cadence of segments already listed on the network's video platform, though NBC has not published a schedule for when it will next update the opposition-vote figure or release fuller demographic detail.

The original segment is available on NBC News' Meet the Press site.

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